MMR & autism: time trend analysis 1988-93
- Vaccine Affect
- Jun 16
- 1 min read
J A Kaye, M del Mar Melero-Montes, H Jick
Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis
Published 24 February 2001
In 1988 the mumps, measles, and rubella (MMR) vaccine was introduced in the UK national childhood vaccination schedule.
While single measles vaccines were available from 1968, coverage was poor, only reaching around 80% in 1988, when the MMR vaccine was introduced. The MMR vaccine's introduction led to a significant increase in vaccination coverage.
The risk of autism increased nearly fourfold among boys aged 2 to 5 years born in 1988-93 and registered in the UK general practice research database, whereas the prevalence of MMR vaccination was over 95% and virtually constant.
The increase in recorded diagnoses of autism that we observed in the UK general practice research database could be due to increased awareness of the condition among parents and general practitioners, changing diagnostic criteria, or environmental factors not yet identified. A strength of our study is that we were able to use population based data in the general practice research database to estimate the birth cohort specific incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners as well as the prevalence of MMR vaccination.
Nevertheless, when the incidence of an illness is rising rapidly in each birth year cohort at the same time that an exposure is steady and almost universal, the exposure cannot be the explanation for the rapid increase in incidence that was observed.
